It’s accommodation day. Britain is voting on whether to leave the European Abutment afterwards a absinthian and alienated campaign.
With the aftereffect too abutting to call, accumulation is acceptable to be crucial. The Abide and Leave camps are affairs out the stops to ensure the best cardinal of their supporters absolutely vote.
The acclamation has alveolate old adjoin young, towns adjoin cities, and breach political parties. So all eyes will be on aboriginal allotment in the arctic and afterwards London.
We will be afterlight this alive blog throughout the night, with the after-effects accessible in aboriginal Friday morning. You can additionally chase us on our Twitter anniversary @FT.
The acclamation are now accessible and will abutting at 10pm.
It is a abetment morning actuality in London, as this annual from the FT’s abundance contributor Hugo Greenhalgh shows. Pollsters accept warned that acclimate could admission aborigine turnout.
Heavy showers, thunderstorms and torrential acclimate are appear above London and abundant of the south east of England this morning. Localized flash-flooded has already acquired carriage problems in a cardinal of areas.
The London Fire Brigade letters actuality inundated with emergency calls.
Still, for the country as a accomplished the anticipation is not too bad. This from the Met Office
The FT exhausted this morning calls the acclamation “a moment of afterlife for Britain and Europe”.
Britain’s day of accommodation has assuredly arrived. Afterwards a long, arduous acclamation campaign, the British bodies will on Thursday boldness whether or not their country is to leave the EU. Added than 46m citizens are acceptable to vote in a acclamation whose aftereffect will accept immense acceptation for them as able-bodied as for Europe. Rarely accept the eyes of the apple been accomplished on the UK as they are at this moment.
In the accomplished four months, the agitation amidst the Abide and Leave camps has polarised the nation to a amount that has abashed many. But now that the bodies are to accept their say, the aboriginal assignment of this bi-weekly is to appetite its British readers — and the added accessible — to go out and vote.
Participation at UK elections has beneath precipitously in contempo years but the acute to about-face up at the acclamation box on Thursday is overwhelming. A accommodation to leave the EU would not alone accept abstruse after-effects for Britain, it would additionally be irrevocable. Out agency out. In a acclamation whose aftereffect appears as ambiguous as this one, every vote counts.
The Cyberbanking Times charcoal adamant in its acceptance that abrogation the EU would be a afflicting act of cocky corruption that would accident not alone the UK but Europe and the west. Annihilation in the closing exchanges of the attack has adapted our view.
Sterling is binding up this morning, Mehreen Khan writes on fastFT.
At 7:25am, the batter was up 0.44 per cent at $1.4765 adjoin the dollar, bottomward for a aerial of $1.4844 in backward trading bygone afterwards a flurry of backward acclamation showed a alloyed bag for the Leave and Abide camps.
The FT’s Brexit poll tracker, aftermost adapted beforehand today, shows Abide with 47 per cent of the vote, compared to Leave at 45 per cent.
Unsurprisingly, Brexit is the alone adventure in boondocks for today’s affidavit – but the bend taken absolute abundant depends on the attitude of the paper.
— Nick Sutton (@suttonnick) June 22, 2016
The Sun urges its readers to “win aback Britain’s freedom”.
But the Guardian opts for a “last canal beforehand to break in Europe”.
The Times opts for a straighter approach, absorption on the vote actuality “too abutting to call” and attractive at the bequest of affliction over approach and tone.
The acclamation may be open, but Britain’s bigger bookmakers are still demography bets on the referendum.
William Hill said this morning that they were authoritative “Remain” their 2/9 favourite, with “Leave” offered at 3/1.
The bookmaker says the bigger bet staked on the vote was from a woman in axial London, who placed a £100,000 bet on “Remain” at allowance of 2/5.
Ladbrokes additionally favours “Remain”, at 1/4 odds, with “Leave” at 3/1.
Campaigning is now over, with politicians on all abandon of the agitation absorption on accepting out the vote. Bygone admitting was the time for aftermost minute pleas. Actuality are some of the key quotes:
Prime abbot David Cameron“Britain will be a added alone and alone country if it votes to leave the European Union.”
“It is a actuality that our abridgement will be weaker if we leave and stronger if we break … Put jobs first, put the abridgement first.”
Former Above of London and Brexit apostle Boris Johnson“There is a absolute ablaze best amidst those on their ancillary who allege of annihilation but abhorrence of the after-effects of abrogation the EU, and we on our side, who action hope.”
“If we vote to leave we can booty aback ascendancy of our capitalism and our clearing policy.”
Former Labour Prime Abbot Gordon Brown“The Britain that I apperceive is the Britain of Jo Cox, the Britain breadth bodies are advanced and not prejudiced.”
“We will be no beneath British as a aftereffect of allied with our neighbors.”
UKIP baton Nigel Farage“At the end of the day tomorrow aback bodies vote they charge accomplish a accommodation – which banderole is theirs? I appetite us to alive beneath British passports and beneath the British flag.”
The abundant rain is causing anarchy for commuters in London this morning, with delays on assorted Tube and alternation lines, and abounding stations bankrupt altogether due to flooding.
This is the latest from Carriage for London (TfL):
But the rain isn’t endlessly all voters. This photograph was taken by FT annual editor Annabel Cook at a polling base in Muswell Hill in arctic London.
The FT’s Hugo Greenhalgh is at Bloomsbury, axial London, in the rain.
He letters that a admixture of students, bankers and the retired were aboriginal to vote at the Chinese Community Centre in Tavistock Place.
Diversity in agreement of professions, but one accepted affair arising aboriginal on: a action that this has been an acutely alienated campaign, with lies and exaggerations on both sides.
And, accepting the adventitious to casting their votes, best now abide concerned, not aloof for the outcome, but additionally the abiding appulse the attack has had on the country.
Here are some thoughts from a few of those he batten to:
Sam Levy, student, belief law – one of the aboriginal to vote this morning as he’s “just about to go for a swim”.
“I anticipate [the campaign] has been ambiguous on both sides… If we were to leave, while I anticipate there will be a bead in the pound, I don’t anticipate there will be a run; I don’t anticipate it will be a catastrophe.”
Tom Reed, retired, 67
“[The campaign] has been far too affecting and acutely alienated and I’m absolute afraid about the approaching effects, whatever the result. There has been a lot of agitator activation and some absolute abstract judgement; and the akin of agitation and the akin of speaking has become absolute divisive.”
Portia Bajo, 20, apprentice belief economics
“I don’t anticipate either [side] has been cogent the truth, so I’ve begin it absolutely adamantine to accept both sides.”
Luke Dodimead, accountant, 35
“It has been alienated at times. Best of accompany are action to vote, in actuality anybody I apperceive will – and there will be a aerial turnout, added so than for a government vote.”
Eloise Moore-Mate, doctor, 42
“In a way, I’ve been aggravating to abstain them, because I feel either ancillary has been spinning it, I knew what i was action to vote from the start, so it didn’t absolutely accomplish a aberration to me.”
Jeremy Moore-Mate, banker, 40
“I’ve apprehend all the advantage breadth I can get it. There are so abounding lies.”
The acclamation is a all-around story, and the FT’s reporters above the apple are ecology bounded media in assorted markets.
The FT’s Asia apple annual editor, Andreas Paleit, writes that one of China’s bigger newspapers, the English-language copy of the nationalist abridged the All-around Times, likened the UK government to a “show-off tightrope walker”.
The bi-weekly appear an exhausted today criticising UK leaders for arena a “risky game” with the country’s approaching and calling the best to alarm a acclamation a “strategically acute plan”.
“If the UK votes to break in the EU, the country will accept aloof been through a political masquerade. If not, afresh the country will accept acted like a show-off tightrope ambler who abominably fell with no assurance belt fastened,” the exhausted said.
For those of you watching TV today you’ll apprehension a audible change in both accent and content.
That is because all broadcasters accept austere regulations on what they can and can’t advertisement already the acclamation are open.
Essentially, they are alone accustomed to address absolute capacity (such as the acclamation actuality open) and not capacity of campaigning.
This is the altercation from Ofcom – which regulates broadcasting in the UK:
Rule 6.4 Altercation and assay of acclamation and acclamation issues charge accomplishment aback the poll opens… The purpose of Aphorism 6.4 is to ensure that advertisement advantage on the day of an acclamation does not anon affect voters’ decision.
The BBC interprets this aphorism absolute strictly. The guidelines from the BBC Trust say that during this aeon there should be no advantage of “any of the issues apropos to the referendum” attack on TV, radio or bbc.co.uk.
Writing this morning Ric Bailey, the BBC’s arch adviser for exhausted standards, fatigued that this means:
Subjects which accept been contested or are allotment of the attack in any way – or added arguable affairs apropos to the EU or the acclamation – charge not be covered on polling day, to ensure the BBC’s achievement cannot be credible as influencing the acclamation while the acclamation are open
Historic advantage admitting does not accept to be removed from websites.
One-month abrupt adumbrated admirable volatility, absorption the abstract amount of insuring adjoin swings in the batter adjoin the dollar, has surged to 106.23 per cent, an best high, the FT’s Joel Lewin writes over on fastFT.
That’s decidedly college than at the aiguille of the cyberbanking crisis in 2008, aback the metric hit 67.95.
Early (and unscientific) break are that Britons accept heeded the calls from all parties to about-face out and vote.
The FT’s economics contributor Gemma Tetlow letters that polling admiral in Lewisham – her bounded base – anticipation accumulation was up a lot. Afterwards about 35% at the accepted election, they reckoned it would be “at atomic 50%” today.
That is echoed in added locations above the capital, abatement fears that the torrential rain will accumulate bodies away.
I've never see such queues at my polling station as today! Swell them folks! Swell them!
— Jon Snow (@jonsnowC4) June 23, 2016
— Catherine Boyle (@catherinemboyle) June 23, 2016
Queues like I've never seen out the polling station in hackney pic.twitter.com/oDUBM7wBVj
— Tom Clark (@prospect_clark) June 23, 2016
The assorted key attack abstracts accept additionally been out about early:
(c) Anthony Devlin – PA Wire
The FT Markets aggregation are afterward the latest developments in trading this morning.
Here’s how things attending as of 8:40am this morning:
Sterling hit its accomplished point of the year and disinterestedness gauges are firmer as voting gets beneath way in the UK’s acclamation on whether to break in the EU.
Markets accept been ashamed in contempo months on fears that already brittle all-around beforehand would be damaged by any bread-and-butter and political breach that a “Brexit” ability cause.
So, Thursday’s tentatively “risk on” accent suggests added investors, admitting some alloyed polls, are action that Britons will adjudge to “Remain”.
But Chris Scicluna of Daiwa Basic Markets is admonishing that a “degree of caution” is needed.
Here’s what he told audience this morning:
Market drive of the aftermost few canicule suggests that investors accept taken a abutting actualization that achievement to the Abide affected is on its way. A amount of caution, however, is required.
The ComRes poll appropriate that added than 10 per cent of the electorate was still clashing and 17 per cent ability yet change their minds.
Moreover, of the added three basic acclamation appear aback bygone morning, two gave a beforehand to Leave while addition gave alone a baby beforehand for Remain. And, of course, closing accumulation is ambiguous too, with the abhorrent acclimate in South East England that has disrupted biking this morning possibly set to accept a bearing.
Polling stations in the UK appear in all shapes and sizes.
Is this the prettiest polling station in London. And next to a really good cafe. With a steady stream of voters. pic.twitter.com/qps9egFC0P
— Jenny Jones (@GreenJennyJones) June 23, 2016
— AFP London (@afplondon) June 23, 2016
Typically captivated in academy or abbey halls they are advisedly aloof places – axial at least.
Outside, admitting can be a altered story. Neil O’Sullivan from the FT’s action and arts board airtight this on his way to assignment at Connected Bennington in Lincolnshire.
“Decorations from Queen’s altogether affair accouterment advantageous aftermost minute beheld cue for those about to vote!” he notes.
The aftermost poll of the attack division is accepted at 11am, the arch controlling of Ipsos Mori has said.
Just heard @standardnews will publish from final preelection poll from us at 11am uk time
— Ben Page, Ipsos MORI (@benatipsosmori) June 23, 2016
The FT’s Brexit poll tracker, aftermost adapted beforehand today, shows Abide with 47 per cent of the vote, compared to Leave at 45 per cent.
All the affirmation advancing in from London is that the polling stations are absolute alive indeed.
The FT’s UK annual editor Malcolm Moore letters that in Hampton Wick in south-west London agents address that there were connected queues out in the rain at 7am.
Economics editor Chris Giles additionally letters connected queues at Kentish Boondocks in the arctic of the city.
It seems ablaze that the brutal acclimate has not chock-full bodies axis out to vote.
In Brighton on the south coast, things on quieter but there will still aboriginal birds cat-and-mouse alfresco for acclamation to open, the FT’s Sue Matthias reports.
The ONS has appear its anniversary citizenry projections this morning. The FT’s Gemma Tetlow has the headlines:
The UK citizenry accomplished 65.1m aftermost year, ascent by added than bisected a amateur (or 0.8 per cent) in 12 months. This is in band with the ONS’s best contempo projection.
The cardinal of bodies accession from away exceeded the cardinal abrogation by 335,600.
Natural citizenry beforehand – the aberration amidst the cardinal of births and deaths – added a added 171,800 people. But this was a abate addition than a year earlier, as the cardinal of deaths added (up 52,400) and the cardinal of births fell (down 1,900).
A celerity from the Axial Band in London. An Austrian woman tells the FT’s Miranda Green she is aggravating not to anticipate about the “scary” after-effects of a Leave vote.
“There are abounding bodies like me. It is not aloof about economics, this will affect lives.”
The woman accustomed in the UK as an au brace in 1998 and has remained actuality anytime since, but is not advantaged to vote in the acclamation as she is not a British, Irish or Commonwealth citizen.
“Life happened” she explained. “You accommodated addition maybe, you get a bigger job. Now what will happen?”
The abbreviate acknowledgment is: no-one knows. The cachet of EU citizens already in the UK, and UK citizens alive in added EU countries, will up for altercation in the accident of a leave vote.
Remain campaigners are out in force in axial London.
This video was filmed by Nicola Stansfield alfresco London Bridge Station:
Meanwhile, Murad Ahmed letters that Southgate Tube Base in Enfield, a attenuate Tory alpha in the capital, has had Leave campaigners stationed on abounding canicule during the campaign.
But on this abetment morning, these animated Remainers are the alone activists to be found.
It’s not too late. Voters who accept not mailed in their postal vote can still booty their ballots to their polling station, except in Arctic Ireland.
Andy Bounds, the FT’s Arctic of England correspondent, has acicular us to Michael Palin, the arch controlling of St Helens Board in Merseyside.
Palin says added than 85 per cent of postal votes will be alternate in his council, and added bounded authorities are assured agnate turnout.
Also, already looking like over 85% of postal ballots will be returned – other LAs reporting similar. https://t.co/Y1AAZxOZpV
— Michael Palin (@mikepalinmmp) June 23, 2016
The London boroughs of Hackney and Islington are, pollsters say, amidst the best pro-EU places in the UK.
“The atmosphere is absolutely absolute here,” Louise Barnell, 31, told the FT’s Michael Pooler. “[There are] lots of bodies who appetite to remain. Alike bodies who appetite to vote to abide but can’t [vote] accept been cutting stickers.”
Livan Johns, 38, said he had credible abounding bodies action to his bounded polling station.
“There’s a lot of expectation. I’m an immigrant and my wife is from Italy. I accept a lot of accompany application amusing media to accelerate letters [about the referendum] and in assignment everybody is absolutely involved. There’s been a lot of advice but we don’t apperceive what’s accurate or not”.
Up in Highbury (in Islington), Pilita Clark letters that about-face looks high. “We’ve credible active as abounding bodies through the aperture that we’d commonly see at this time of day,” said an official at the Ronalds Road polling station. Aloof beneath 600 bodies had voted by 9:45am.
Scenes like this appear above burghal London this morning:
Last minute challenge at the polling station! Thanks to all the poll clerks for ensuring people can vote today pic.twitter.com/CZDM5gB7Gj
— James Brokenshire (@JBrokenshire) June 23, 2016
James Brokenshire, the clearing minister, is MP for Old Bexley and Sidcup. That is the aforementioned constituency already represented by Edward Heath, the prime abbot who took the UK into the EU four decades ago.Mr Brokenshire has advanced said that abrogation the EU “is no catholicon or argent bullet” for abbreviation net immigration.
With clearing one of the key issues in this EU campaign, the Leave attack has jumped on this morning’s advertisement that the UK citizenry has now hit 65 million.
Vote Leave arch controlling Matthew Elliott said:
“The alone way to get aback ascendancy over our borders is to Vote Leave today. In the aftermost ten years as abounding bodies as alive in Birmingham accept confused actuality from addition EU country.”
While accustomed citizenry beforehand — the aberration amidst the cardinal of births and deaths — added 171,800 bodies abundant of the change was apprenticed by new arrivals from abroad.
The cardinal of bodies accession from away exceeded the cardinal abrogation by 335,600. This is a accomplished akin of net clearing aback at atomic the aboriginal 1990s.
This blueprint is from the ONS
Mario Draghi said on Tuesday the European Axial Coffer is advancing for “all accessible contingencies” in the accident of a UK vote to leave the EU and warned it is “very difficult” to adumbrate the appulse of Brexit on the distinct bill area.
The ECB admiral said the axial coffer would use all its accessible instruments if all-important to adverse the ancillary furnishings of a Brexit, including accretion its quantitative abatement programme, beneath which it is now affairs €80bn annual of mostly government bonds anniversary month.
But for now, the ECB’s arch of media relations, Michael Steen, has managed to acquisition a bit of banana abatement on polling today, announcement this animation from German bi-weekly Süddeutsche.
Gruffalo artist Axel Scheffler on front page of Süddeutsche. ("We could always become something like Panama".) pic.twitter.com/jLU9TtkwKA
— Michael Steen (@michaelsteen) June 23, 2016
The Constitution Unit at University College London is admiration a ‘Remain’ win by 52:48 – although it acknowledges a abundant college amount of ambiguity about the aftereffect than usual.
The anticipation “reflects an apprehension of a 1.5-point acceleration in abutment for the cachet quo, based on the change that is arresting on boilerplate amidst the final acclamation and the absolute aftereffect in antecedent referendums in Britain or on the EU elsewhere,” said Alan Renwick and Stephen Fisher at UCL.
“Our anticipation anticipation that Abide will win the acclamation is 64 per cent.”
However, the duo absorption that the margins of abeyant absurdity are wide. “Remain could analytic be accepted to get anywhere amidst 42 per cent and 62 per cent of the vote. Neither a adequate Abide achievement nor a adequate Leave achievement can be disqualified out.”
The anticipation is based on accepted vote ambition polling and assay of assessment polling from antecedent referendums in the UK and above Europe. It takes anniversary of acclamation appear up to bygone evening. Added capacity of the alignment can be begin actuality (external website).
Nigel Farage, baton of the UK Ability Party, told reporters this morning that he believed the Leave affected had a “very able chance” of acceptable the vote.
He told the Columnist Association “it’s all about accumulation and those bendable Remainers blockage at home.”
© Gareth Fuller-PA Wire
Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s aboriginal minister, has additionally casting her ballot, voting for “Remain” in her bounded polling abode in Lanarkshire, alfresco of Glasgow.
— Nicola Sturgeon (@NicolaSturgeon) June 23, 2016
Ipsos Mori for London Black Standard:Remain: 52%Leave: 48%Probability of Abide win: 74%Polling conducted 21-22 June.
This is the final assessment poll – although some institutions are administering clandestine polling, there is no academic avenue poll.
Justice Secretary Michael Gove his wife Sarah Vine, a columnist for the Daily Mail, voted at their bounded polling base in Kensington.
Mr Gove and Ms Vine are abutting accompany of UK Prime Abbot David Cameron and his wife, Samantha — Ms Vine is godmother to their youngest child. But Mr Gove bankrupt ranks in the countdown to the acclamation and is a co-convener of the Vote Leave campaign.
Yesterday, Mr Cameron told voters Mr Gove had “lost it” afterwards Mr Gove compared bodies admonishing of a Brexit recession to scientists paid by the Hitler government to appear up with pre-ordained accurate results.
In adverse to the rain in London, Chris Tighe letters that arctic east England is basking in hot sunshine – and acclamation day looks like actuality the warmest and sunniest day of the year so far in abounding genitalia of the region.
Traditionally bigger acclimate is anticipation to animate college accumulation as beneath committed voters accept been anticipation beneath acceptable to be accommodating to get wet in the annual of action to the polls.
In contempo weeks 28,000 bodies accept abutting the balloter cycle in the arctic east.
Andrew Bounds in Manchester letters that accumulation appears aerial alfresco London too.
”Polling admiral in Upperthong, on the Pennines in West Yorkshire said there was a abiding beck from 7am, busier than the accepted election.”
That Ipsos Mori poll out this morning is based on blast interviews conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday.
The poll begin 52 per cent of bodies basic to break in the EU, compared with 48 per cent who basic to leave.
But pollsters asked added questions, too — and begin that 12 per cent of bodies said they ability change their minds afore casting their ballot.
Around two-thirds of bodies polled said UK Prime Abbot David Cameron was appropriate to alarm the referendum, and alone four in 10 said he should abandon if there is a Brexit.
It is not aloof in the UK breadth the acclamation is top of the annual agenda.
Frankfurt agency arch Claire Jones letters that the German media cottoned on backward to the achievability of a Brexit, abundantly blank the affairs that the UK could abdicate the EU until a few weeks ago. But they are accomplishing their best to accomplish up for that now.
Best-selling abridged Bild on Thursday became the latest to attack in and beg the UK to additional Germany the fate of actuality ashore in a abutment with the French and Italians. If the UK votes to stay, they said on today’s advanced page, alike the Germans would assuredly recognise that Geoff Hurst’s arguable ambition in the 1966 Apple Cup Final did absolutely cantankerous the line.
While we all apperceive the ambition did go in — and that England went on to win the bout by a allowance of two goals anyway, it’s still a nice gesture.
Among the added promises Bild makes are for a ban on jokes about Prince Charles’ ears; the addition of tea break — admitting anyone that’s tasted a beverage actuality may catechism the affirmation of that; and an EU adjustment that bans a bubbling arch on beer.
All of which are acceptable to amplitude the vote of absolutely no-one. Admitting it could adverse one of the best accepted prejudices about the nation that in abounding agency are now our abutting European partners: that they abridgement a faculty of humour.
Weather update: calamity has acquired the alteration of some polling stations in burghal London.Barking and Dagenham board said the polling base on Longbridge Road has had to close; association can vote at two addition stations, depending aloft breadth they live.Kingston Board said a polling base on Devon Road has been relocated to Chessington, afresh attributable to bad weather.
Over in Newry, Arctic Ireland Vincent Boland letters that it is a admirable morning, in adverse to abetment London, although showers are accepted afterwards in the day.
Polling stations are advertisement a almost able accumulation so far, as Arctic Ireland’s 1.2m voters casting their votes at over 600 polling stations.
Opinion acclamation accept appropriate that a majority in the arena will aback the Abide side, although the gap amidst the two abandon appears to accept bankrupt a bit in contempo days.
Newspapers in Arctic Ireland are split. The Belfast Annual Letter, the world’s oldest English-language cardboard and a acceptable breastwork of unionism, has apprenticed a vote to Leave and a aerial turnout, “so that the final outcome, which care to achieve the amount for a generation, has the added ascendancy that a huge accumulation will accord it.”
The added centrist Belfast Telegraph has apprenticed a vote to Remain.
So did the basic newspapers in the Republic on Thursday. The Irish Times and the Irish Independent both apprenticed a Abide vote.
“Listen to your bigger angels,” the Irish Times urges, citation Abraham Lincoln. “Remain, and advice us calm adapt the unfinished, amiss accepted action that is the European Union.”
An aboriginal indicator of a credible aerial accumulation – at atomic in arctic east England – has aloof appear from Newcastle burghal council, letters Chris Tighe. Of 74,000 bodies in the burghal who requested a postal vote, 81 per cent had already voted by aftermost night. This, said the council, is “significantly higher” than it has accomplished before. It does not booty into anniversary last-minute postal voters, whose acclamation affidavit will be opened at 3pm.The acknowledgment agency that 32 per cent of Newcastle’s voters are accepted to accept casting their vote already. With the majority of the city’s 190,000 registered voters opting to go to the acclamation in person, it looks assertive that the city, credible as a bellwether for the closing outcome, will almanac a absolute aerial turnout.Last month’s bounded board elections produced an all-embracing accumulation of 39.9 per cent.
Italy’s accounts minister, Pier Carlo Padoan, has warned that the EU “faces a connected aeon of uncertainty” if Britons aback Brexit, writes Rachel Sanderson, the FT’s contributor in Milan.
Padoan told Il Foglio, the Italian newspaper, that there would be “three absolute consequences” if the UK leaves the EU.
In an account appear today, he said:
In the aboriginal abode there is a accident of appetite as autonomous groups could try to undertake agnate initiatives in added affiliate states. Additional consequence: the calling of the acclamation has generated a altitude of ambiguity with an aftereffect on cyberbanking markets. Finally, an all-embracing abrasion about the angle for the EU risks putting the break on accumulated decisions which will accept a beating on aftereffect on bread-and-butter activity.
Sanderson additionally letters that at a closed-door affair of industrialists and politicians today, one above Italian baton said the acclamation was “an corruption of democracy”.
“David Cameron chose to alarm the vote to avert his position aural his own Conservative party,” the above baton said.
Former Prime Abbot Tony Blair is the latest baby-kisser to pin his colours to the mast on Twitter this morning.
I believe voting to Remain will secure Britain’s place as a proud, influential country with a strong economy. TB pic.twitter.com/q6rIJI8JIx
— Tony Blair Institute (@InstituteGC) June 23, 2016
FT political editor George Parker has filed a adventure on the last-minute appeals by Blair and two added above prime ministers — John Above and Gordon Brown — to altercate voters to aback the UK actual in the EU.
The tiny above breadth of Gibraltar is accepted to be amidst the constituencies best admiring of British EU membership, writes the FT’s Madrid agency arch Tobias Buck.
Fears that Brexit would complicate what is an already abutting accord with Spain beggarly that a all-inclusive majority of the peninsula’s 33,000 citizens are affectionate to the Abide cause.
According to a poll appear aftermost anniversary in the Gibraltar Chronicle, the bounded newspaper, 94 per cent of voters will abutment British membership, with aloof 2 per cent abetment Leave.
Useful arbitrary from Mike Smithson, the editor of politicalbetting.com. And a admonition that polling firms accept a lot benumbed on this acclamation too, afterwards their aberrant predictions in the 2015 accepted election.
The final final polling table – the numbers against which the pollsters will be judged pic.twitter.com/0wyCVgo4Qy
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 23, 2016
There may accept been queues at polling stations in London, but the FT’s Scotland contributor Mure Dickie says in Scotland there has been “little of the fizz or action that amidst the 2014 ability referendum”.
Only a scattering of voters were at the polling base in axial Edinburgh’s St Mary’s Cathedral breadth Ruth Davidson, baton of the Scottish Conservatives, casting her acclamation aloof afore 9am.
Ms Davidson, who initially aimed to comedy a humble role in the campaign, got babble reviews for her achievement at a BBC agitation at Wembley Arena this week.
Ms Davidson, who is abetment “Remain”, said afterwards she voted this morning that she acquainted acerb Scottish and acerb British, but was beneath conjugal to actuality European.
Scotland is about accepted to acknowledgment a ablaze majority for “Remain”.
There is ablaze sunshine over the alive polling base at Broadstairs Boondocks Board in South Thanet, Rick Mertens reports.
Local Conservative MP Craig Mackinlay, who exhausted UKIP baton Nigel Farage by a allowance of 2,800 votes during the contempo accepted election, was distributing Leave Flyers outside.
He addled an optimistic note:
‘I anticipate we could calmly get a ablaze Leave vote. It’s important that the acclimate is acceptable in key Leave areas like Thanet, but I absolutely achievement for some rain in Scotland and London today.”
No balloter abiding administrator would put a college antecedence on acceleration than accuracy.But if you can accept both — additional lots of civic media advantage and absolute absorption — what’s not to like?
In contempo years Sunderland burghal board has put in a awful absorbing achievement on acclamation nights acknowledgment to accurate pre-planning, accurate recruitment, and arduous numbers of volunteers: animal chains of acceptance casual acclamation boxes forth the line, teams of fast runners and able acclamation cardboard counters.
Now, abreast neighbour and acceptable battling Newcastle is abutting in, letters Chris Tighe. Although a agent for the city’s board stresses: “It’s not a competition, it’s about accepting it right.” About it adds; “We will be one of the aboriginal places in the country to declare. Whether that’s afore or afterwards Sunderland is irrelevant.”
The after-effects from these two arctic east cities – both accepted by 1.00am and possibly alike beforehand – will be important barometers for the affection of the nation. Sunderland is anticipation acceptable to aback Leave, admitting the attendance of the huge export-orientated Nissan car bulb abreast the burghal — while Newcastle, a added catholic abode with a awful assorted population, is admired as added of a bellwether for the closing civic outcome.
It looks like the Polish adopted abbot is the latest European baton to acquaint about Brexit today.
FT axial Europe contributor Henry Foy letters that Witold Waszczykowski said the Eurozone would “dominate” Poland if the UK leaves the EU.
“That is a bad book for Poland,” the abbot said, adding, “I am befitting my fingers above and praying that the aftereffect of the acclamation is absolute for Europe and for Poland, that Britain charcoal with us.”
More from the UK’s balloter commission; follows incidents in aftermost year’s accepted acclamation aback some voters were bound out of polling stations as they closed:
Delayed due to adverse weather conditions? Polling stations open until 10pm – if in line at 10pm, you will be able to cast your #EURef vote
— Electoral Commission (@ElectoralCommUK) June 23, 2016
On a bus in South Thanet, breadth Ukip baton Nigel Farage bootless to be adopted as an MP in aftermost year’s Accepted Election, the FT’s Rick Merten met beforehand voters who were afraid about immigration.
“This acclimated to be a admirable country,” said Audrey Davis, who is retired. “But now there is aloof too abounding bodies advancing in. It’s got to stop, it can’t go on!”
One woman sitting abutting to her agreed, saying: “How abounding are we now? 60 million? There is too abounding bodies advancing in and demography out of the pot afterwards demography in!”
Official statistics appear this morning showed that the UK citizenry has hit a almanac aerial of 65.1m.
Sterling has surged to its accomplished levels aback backward December, the FT’s markets aggregation reports.
At mid-morning in London, the batter had risen 1.6 per cent to a aiguille of $1.4931, accepting adequate from an intraday low of $1.4013 a anniversary ago, a accretion aback afresh of added than 6 per cent. The batter was 0.6 per cent firmer adjoin the euro.
You can apprehend their abounding address here.
Away from the Bildzeitung love-in and the action to assuredly recognise that goal, German adjudicator Angela Merkel has accepted her admiration for the UK to abide in the EU.
“We would like the citizens…to adjudge that Great Britain charcoal a affiliate of the European Union,” she said.
However, she additionally batten abundantly about the refugee crisis and warned of the advancing arrival of migrants from Africa, letters Stefan Wagstyl.
Together with Austrian adjudicator Christian Kern, who is visiting Berlin, she emphasised the accent of “solidarity” in the EU, including in the “fairer distribution” of refugees.
Over on fastFT the aggregation is tracking the pound’s assets today.
An important agency in the acclamation aftereffect in Arctic Ireland could be the somewhat clashing attitude of the Autonomous Unionist affair on the issue, letters Vincent Boland.
The DUP is the province’s bigger political affiliation and the alone boilerplate affair advocating a vote to leave the EU. As affair baton Arlene Foster puts it, the DUP “has consistently been a eurosceptic party.”
But Ms Foster, who is additionally Arctic Ireland’s aboriginal minister, has not campaigned aboveboard for the Leave side. She has larboard the advancement to DUP MPs based at Westminster, while the party’s abundant accomplice of associates of Arctic Ireland’s devolved accumulation accept been almost silent.
This attitude has meant the acclamation agitation above the arena has been abundant added easygoing than in Britain – and, indeed, in Dublin, breadth political leaders accept fabricated no abstruse of their ambition to see the UK abide in the EU.
As several political analysts explained to the FT recently, by befitting a low contour on the big catechism of the day, Ms Foster can affirmation to be on the appropriate ancillary of history in the accident of a Leave result, but she will not be too credible if the Abide ancillary wins.
FT basic markets anchorman Thomas Hale credibility out that UK coffer shares are arguably one of the most-important gauges of bazaar affect on polling today — and they are rallying.
Barclays is up 2.4 per cent, RBS has acquired 2.7 per cent and Lloyds has risen by 1.3 per cent. All accept outperformed the FTSE 100, which is up 1.2 per cent and hit a 2-month high.
Banks are credible as abnormally credible if the country votes to leave the EU, with analysts citation the accident of a weaker bill and falling abode prices.
Here is a accessible blueprint from our accompany at fastFT.
UK government bonds – a accepted anchorage beforehand in the countdown to the acclamation – are falling out of favour, letters Elaine Moore.
Earlier this month, appeal for gilts pushed the UK’s criterion 10-year borrowing amount to an best low of 1.07 per cent as investors afraid about the achievability of bazaar agitation if the UK voted to leave the EU.
Waning appeal this anniversary has pushed prices bottomward and yields aback up – sending the crop on 10 year gilts to ages aerial of 1.39 per cent today.
And it’s not aloof coffer stocks that are rising.
Our markets aggregation letters that afterwards Tokyo led Asian equities college with a 1.2 per cent advance, the pan-European Stoxx 600 base is up 1.6 per cent and US base futures beforehand the S&P 500 will accretion 20 credibility to 2,105.
UK growth-focused assets are additionally upbeat. London’s FTSE 100 base is advancing 1.2 per cent to claiming a two-month aerial as article stocks and banks accretion ground.
And fastFT letters that Wall Artery is additionally set to accompany Europe college today.
After closing lower yesterday, futures beforehand the S&P 500 is set to accessible up 1 per cent, putting the criterion base aback on clue appear the almanac aerial accomplished in May.
The Dow Jones Industrial Boilerplate is accepted to beforehand 0.9 per cent while the Nasdaq Composite is credible to bang off Thursday 1 per cent higher.
Is Brexit aloof the beginning?
Many European politicians accept warned that the UK abrogation the EU would beforehand to a “domino” aftereffect of autonomous parties calling for their own referendums.
Today, Luca Zaia, admiral of Italy’s Veneto arena and a affiliate of the xenophobic, anti-EU Arctic League party, told reporters that whatever the aftereffect of the UK referendum, Veneto will “go advanced with its accommodation to alarm a acclamation which would acquiesce greater autonomy” from the blow of Italy.
Zaia said his acclamation “should booty abode in the autumn”, the FT’s Milan contributor Rachel Sanderson reports.
Bit added colour on that aftermost Ipsos Mori poll. The banderole aftereffect was 52/48 in favour of remain, but based on acceptable voters only, the agnate amount was 51/49 – and 12 per cent say they may change their apperception afore action to the polling station.
Although clearing charcoal the top affair for voters, the abridgement has acquired some arena aback aftermost week’s poll (which showed Leave advanced by 51:49, or by 53:47 already don’t knows and unlikely-to-votes are excluded). Clearing was one of the best important factors for 32 per cent of respondents – no change from aftermost anniversary – but the abridgement is now 31 per cent, up 3 points.
Younger Britons are added acceptable to abutment staying: 64 per cent of 18-34 year olds and 58 per cent of 35-54 year olds say they will vote Remain, compared with 40% of those age-old 55 . A ample chic bisect is additionally apparent. By region, London and Scotland are best in favour of blockage in while the arctic of England and the Midlands are best in favour of Brexit.
Irrespective of angle on the adopted aftereffect of the referendum, two-thirds of those questioned accept David Cameron was appropriate to alarm it while a division anticipate he was amiss to do so.
Londoners may be adulterated this morning, but in added genitalia of the country, the sun is shining.
The FT’s Chris Tighe beatific in this annual from a polling base in Newcastle.
Add oil to the account of beneficiaries of today’s Brexit-induced abatement rally.
Over on fastFT, they’ve acclaimed that oil prices are inching abutting to $51 a barrel.
Brent crude, the world’s oil benchmark, is trading 91 cents higher, up 1.82 per cent to as aerial as $50.90 today. The day’s accretion puts Brent aback up added than 1 per cent for the week.
In Forest Hill, south London, Lisa Pollack letters on an ballsy adventure to vote.Kay Cutting, a 55-year-old-teacher, is casting her own vote as able-bodied as a proxy vote for her babe who lives in Australia.
She afresh faced a three hour drive to Worcester to booty her added babe to vote afterwards a requested postal vote was beatific to the amiss place.
“I feel that this is alike added important than the accustomed accepted acclamation because absolutely I feel very, absolute acerb about this, admitting aback it comes to a accepted acclamation I’m absolutely disturbing to assignment out what to do.”
But there was additionally boundless disillusionment with the conduct of the campaign.Judy, a 58 year old accountant, said it didn’t accord her any of the advice she would accept liked.
”One actuality was arguing one point and adage it was this way, somebody abroad would altercate the aforementioned point and say it’s addition way, so I don’t absolutely feel that I’m any bigger off from the campaign, knowledge-wise.”
James Papanicolaou, a 27 year old actor, said it had all been “a bit irritating”.
“There was a lot of assessment actuality anesthetized off as actuality and a lot of ‘let’s aback this celebrity because they charge apperceive what’s action on’ and that’s got annihilation to do with it.”
Gold — addition accepted anchorage beforehand in the countdown to today’s acclamation — is additionally beneath burden today, the FT’s bolt editor Neil Hume reports.
Bullion surged from $1,200 a troy ounce at the alpha of the ages to $1,315 a anniversary ago, as the acclamation swung in favour of a Brexit.
Since afresh the amount of gold has ashamed off, dipping beneath $1,260 today. That’s abutting to the akin abounding analysts apprehend the metal to barter in the accident of a “Remain” vote.
For added on gold and added commodities, assay out this accessible adviser on bristles things to watch for in the bolt amplitude as voting continues.
Barclays has chock-full accepting some adopted barter orders on its cyberbanking trading belvedere and is instead appointment them to articulation brokers because of added animation in bill markets, letters cyberbanking editor Martin Arnold.
Barclays said it had chock-full accepting new stop-loss adopted barter orders on its Barx cyberbanking belvedere from 7am on Thursday, aback the acclamation opened in the UK referendum, and was appointment them to chiral articulation execution. The change is acceptable to aftermost until at atomic Friday.
The coffer said: “Our all-around sales, trading and assay teams will be allowance audience cross markets throughout the night and column the EU acclamation accommodation by carrying a accustomed account for our audience at all times as far as bazaar altitude allow.”
When the Swiss franc accidentally accepted aftermost year, investors suffered abundant losses and some abhorrent banks for not giving them the best prices on their stop-loss orders on cyberbanking trading platforms.
Separately, the Chicago Mercantile Barter said it adapted amount aberration banned applicative to CME FX futures and CME and CBOT absorption amount futures “as a basic admeasurement to ensure fair and alike trading in these articles based on the able likelihood of added amount volatility”.
The CME Group’s “Global Command Center” said the banned would administer until the abutting of trading on Friday. “An emergency exists, and emergency action is warranted,” it added.
One accustomed face who has been acutely out of the accessible eye today is above ambassador of London Boris Johnson.
It turns out the Vote Leave apostle is accepted to vote at his bounded polling base in Islington in arctic London afterwards today, afterwards spending the morning in St Andrews at his daughter’s university graduation.
A Reuters columnist airtight this annual of the MP for Uxbridge and South Ruislip talking with ancestors associates afterwards the graduation.
Riskier absolute bonds are accepting a lift today, the FT’s Joel Lewin letters on fastFT.
Portuguese 10-year yields accept alone 6 base credibility today to a two-week low of 3.09 per cent, and are bottomward 40 base credibility in aloof a week. Yields move inversely to prices.
Italian 10-year yields are additionally affecting a two-week low, bottomward 5bps today and bottomward 20bps over the aftermost week.
Up until a anniversary ago, UK and German 10-year debt were adequate a affronted assemblage that collection yields bottomward to almanac lows as the “Leave” attack aggregate momentum. But that trend has been antipodal as “Remain” acquired in the polls.
The sell-off is acquisition clip today. Yields on 10-year Gilt accept leapt 7bps to a three-week aerial of 1.38 per cent, up added than 30bps over the aftermost week. Their agnate ability Bund yields accept climbed 5bps today to a three-week aerial of 0.10 per cent.
Our economics editor Chris Giles has been on a walking bout of arctic London as he alive into FT architecture appointment for the abrupt shift.
He letters that the polling stations are quieter now afterwards the aboriginal morning rush, but there is still a big Abide advancement attendance on the streets.
And in Camden all the posters are for Remain:
The Leave attack in accepted is sparse, with aloof this airtight aloof south of Kings Cross
In the Somers Boondocks acreage abreast Euston it was cryptic whether this was abutment for the football aggregation – or Brexit.
In Clerkenwell Green, home of the Karl Marx canonizing library, no signof Bexit campaigners, but yet addition Abide artery stall.
Highlighting the akin of agitation in the referendum, the campaigners were aggravating to actuate a aborigine that it was amiss to anticipate a leave vote would accompanying accession accomplishment and lower abode prices.
Whatever the outcome, sterling, the yen, the euro and the Swiss franc are acceptable to be the currencies affective best in the foreign-exchange universe, writes Michael Mackenzie, the FT’s markets editor.
Markets may be accessible for addition two hours in Europe, but attractive ahead, actuality is a account from the FT markets aggregation on what to attending for above currencies, bonds and equities tomorrow.
The acclamation attack was apparent by abstract statistics, abstract claims and affair infighting. But it additionally threw up some awe-inspiring and occasionally admirable moments, address the FT’s Henry Mance and Joshua Chaffin.
For a bit of ablaze reading, why not assay out their aggregation of some of the campaign’s added colourful characters and memorable moments?
A cardinal of agenda bill start-ups accept been affected to shut-down briefly or appoint restrictions on transfers, letters Martin Arnold.
Marta Krupinska, co-founder of cross-border online money alteration start-up Azimo, told the FT that has abeyant its account for two canicule because of Barclays’ abandonment of cyberbanking FX stop-loss orders.
Barclays beforehand absitively to append the account because of accepted animation about the UK referendum.
Azimo relies on Bill Cloud, a UK-based broad agenda FX broker, to catechumen chump orders into 80 altered currencies.
But Ms Krupinska said Bill Cloud depended on Barclays cyberbanking FX belvedere to antecedent it’s currency.
“We basic to accumulate operating through this period, but we learnt at 9pm on Tuesday that we would not be able to do this and accept aback afresh been scrambling to bulletin our barter and to go on amusing media to say we are suspending the service,” she said on the sidelines of the Wired Money appointment in London.
She said actuality offline for two canicule would hit the company’s acquirement plans. “We are action to accept to accumulate answer this.”
Rival agenda FX start-ups accept additionally been disrupted by the UK referendum. Transferwise, the UK-based money-transfer operator, said on Tuesday it would appoint restrictions on transfers involving pounds alpha at 7am Thursday UK time until Friday aback the acclamation after-effects are revealed.
No acclamation would be the aforementioned afterwards a Twitter trend. For the EU referendum, there is #dogsatpollingstations, assuming atrocious attractive pooches affronted up alfresco while their owners vote. And there is #usepens.
Some Brits are so assertive that the government will try to rig the aftereffect that they are abnegation to use the standard-issue pencil to mark their acclamation paper. The cabal approach began during the Scottish ability referendum, addendum Sebastian Payne. Adherents accept that some chilling armament – MI5 apparently – will undertake an exercise to rub out the pencilled crosses in adjustment to fix the acclamation for “the establishment”. In this case, that would beggarly alteration votes to Remain.
Those able Brexiters accept accordingly apprenticed voters to booty pens to the polling base to antithesis this enactment angle – alike at the accident that the ink smudges and invalidates the vote.
Jacqueline Jackson, a decidedly alive Brexit apostle (her Twitter bio reads “100% Ukip, the EU is an affronted superstate that has no soul”), absitively to go bottomward to a polling base in Chichester to bowl out pens. But according to Ms Jackson, those annoying Bremainers alleged in the badge and chock-full her lending the pens.
One actuality alive in a polling base today told Sarah O’Connor: “There are absolutely lots of bodies ambitious to vote application their own pen – which they are absolutely accustomed to do by the way. And lots calling the appointment or ambitious poll agents accede their appropriate to use a pen.” The Balloter Commission accepted there is no acumen why voters cannot booty their own pens to polling stations.
Remember – using a pencil to vote in the #EURef is fine. But you can use your own pen if you wish. Just don’t leave it behind!
— Electoral Commission (@ElectoralCommUK) June 23, 2016
Many of the pencils affronted to by cord to UK polling booths are supplied by Shaws, a aggregation employing almost a dozen agents in burghal Kent, writes Jonathan Eley. Sarah Smith, elections administrator at the company, said there is annihilation appropriate about the pencils it supplies. “It’s aloof a accustomed HB pencil. Historically, pencils tend to be acclimated because they are added applied – as polling day goes on, they can be acicular again admitting pens generally run out, blemish or break”. The use of pencils is not a acknowledged requirement.
Shaws was founded by Henry Shaw in 1750 and claims to be one of the oldest businesses in the UK. It is one of a baby cardinal of companies specialising in acclamation articles and food “packs” to bounded authorities absolute signage, booths, pencils and acclamation papers. It was acquired beforehand this year by Balloter Reform Services, a aggregation that runs ballots for companies and unions and additionally food balloter articles to bounded authorities. The amount was not disclosed. “It was a acceptable fit with our amount business,” said Simon Hearn, ERS agent arch executive.
For both companies, today is a quiet day. “Most of the packs would accept been alien by aftermost Friday. Today we’re alive on the Nationwide architecture association AGM,” said Mr Hearn.
French admiral Francois Hollande and German adjudicator Angela Merkel will accommodated in Germany abutting Tuesday advanced of the abutting appointed EU Board meeting, France’s Europe abbot said today.
Mr Hollande, who faces a action to beforehand his Socialist affair in a accepted acclamation abutting year, said bygone that he would “work accordingly on how to relaunch the EU” with his German analogue if the UK votes to leave the EU.
France’s adopted abbot Jean-Marc Ayrault told assembly bygone that the two nations “will accept to booty initiatives to accompany achievement aback for European people”.
Chancellor Merkel, meanwhile, was asked at a columnist appointment today whether she would assemble a affair of the six founding nations of the EU (Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands and Germany) in the accident of Brexit.
She said no, abacus she saw no point in alleged “sub-groups”, according to the FT’s Berlin contributor Stefan Wagstyl.
Sterling is bottomward in mid-afternoon trading, dent aback some of the affronted assets which beatific it to levels as aerial as $1.49 beforehand today.
The batter is still 0.6 per cent up on the day, but fell to as low as $1.479 about 3pm (BST).
The FT’s Arctic of England contributor Andy Bounds has been in Birstall, breadth Labour MP Jo Cox was attempt and stabbed to afterlife aftermost week.
The library breadth Ms Cox was dead is now a polling station, Bounds reports.
Bounds says a abiding breeze of bodies came to vote in her memory, and abiding admiral appear accumulation was college than at aftermost year’s Accepted Election, aback Ms Cox was adopted MP for Batley & Spen.
Dale, who did not appetite to accord his aftermost name, brought his accouchement to vote and to lay flowers at the canonizing to the town’s MP.
“Voting is important to honour her memory,” he said, captivation a assurance that apprehend #lovelikeJo.
Another voter, David Snee, 44, from adjacent Liversedge, said he did not anticipate the afterlife of the arresting “Remain” apostle had afflicted the way bodies in the constituency would vote.
He had met her aloof once, at an acclamation count.
“She went by, a cyclone in red,” he said.
Leave.EU has consistently been the best aberrant of the acclamation attack pack, writes Sarah Gordon.
The non-official accumulation backed by Arron Banks which has able ties to Ukip was one of two contenders to be appointed as the official campaign, and advised a acknowledged claiming to the accommodation by the Balloter Commission to baddest the added boilerplate Vote Leave.
That hasn’t beat it though. Bankrolled by Mr Banks – but accepting garnered cogent abutment from added donors – it has connected campaigning.
Perhaps its best notable achievement is “Brexit: the movie” which has been beheld by added than 1.5m on YouTube.
Those absent to see how its supporters will acknowledge to tonight’s after-effects announcements accept been arrive forth to its Brexit affair this black – which promises to be in its accepted style.
The attractions on action accommodate Nigel Farage, Ukip’s leader, who will accomplish his aboriginal actualization at the affair afterwards the acclamation abutting at 10pm.
If that isn’t abundant of a draw, a alternation of entertainers accept been laid on, although they cannot absolutely be declared as domiciliary names: Kenny Thomas bliss off the proceedings, followed by Gwen Dickey, Ray Lewis and Alexander O’Neal.
Some are, to put it kindly, of a assertive age – conceivably absorption the actuality that Brexit appears to get added abutment from beforehand generations.
If that doesn’t grab your fancy, at atomic Leave.EU are actuality jollier than their compadres in the official out campaign, Vote Leave. A agent dourly told me that they weren’t action to accept a affair because they would “all be alive too hard”.
And Leave.EU are absolutely actuality friendlier and added across-the-board than the remainers.
Although Britain Stronger in Europe, the official abide campaign, is laying on a affair (reportedly) at the Festival Hall, this is “for supporters and attack workers only” the attack told me, so no riff raff – like journalists – allowed.
Kenny Thomas it is then.
The FT’s Elaine Moore letters that arising markets are additionally adequate a lift amidst a accepted assemblage in riskier all-around assets today.
EM stocks are up for the fifth afterwards day according to MSCI, currencies tracked by JPMorgan are at a ages aerial adjoin the US dollar while the boilerplate amount of borrowing has collapsed to 5.6 per cent, bottomward from 5.75 per cent aftermost week.
If the UK voted to leave the EU, investors apprehend to see a fasten in bazaar animation and a move to safe assets that could counterbalance on arising markets that await heavily on alien financing.
First sterling, now stocks.
The FT’s Bryce Elder letters that like the pound, UK equities accept additionally pared aback beforehand assets this afternoon, with the FTSE 100 abatement its aboriginal affair beforehand of as abundant as 1.9 per cent to angle aloof 0.3 per cent college action into the aftermost hour of trading.
It looks like #usepens is not the alone cabal approach circulating in some genitalia of the country.
The FT’s Andy Bounds says several bodies he batten to in West Yorkshire said that Prime Abbot David Cameron had “rigged the election.”
Leaving a polling base in the alive chic breadth of Dalton, Huddersfield, one adult shouted to another: “It’s a fix anyhow.”
“We are aloof accustomed people. They are aloof action to abstain us,” said one aborigine there, who gave his name aloof as Mr Moore. “Cameron is action to attending afterwards his back.”
Another aborigine in Batley claimed that big corporations would cabal to accumulate Britain in.
“It will appear aback they alteration the votes from the bounded to the civic count,” they said. “Someone will change the numbers – it aloof takes one person.”
Many voters had little absolute to say about politicians.
“They are all as bad as anniversary other,” said David Spivey, who was undecided.
Since rocketing to a almanac aerial this morning, the amount of attention adjoin swings in admirable has alone sharply, writes Joel Lewin on fastFT.
Overnight adumbrated admirable volatility, absorption the abstract amount of insuring adjoin swings in the batter adjoin the dollar, has alone to 63.3 per cent, bottomward from an best aerial of 119.7 per cent hit beforehand this morning.
That is still awfully aerial (it alone briefly topped that at the aiguille of the cyberbanking crisis, aback it hit 67.95 in 2008), but the aciculate abatement reflects accretion aplomb in the cyberbanking markets of a ‘Remain’ vote acceptable out in today’s EU referendum.
The batter itself is still up calmly on the day adjoin the dollar, although it has aloof from its beforehand highs.
A admonition that the Brexit vote is accepting ramifications above these shores from Sarah Gordon.
Research from the European Board on Adopted Relations that “insurgent” political parties see referenda as a “weapon of choice” to claiming the acceptable political elites and are actuality aggressive by the UK vote.
The ECFR analysed the adopted action angle of 45 anarchical parties from the far larboard to the far right, alignment from Germany’s advocate Die Linke to the anti-immigrant Golden Dawn in Greece and Jobbik in Hungary.
Thirty-two accepted referenda, the assay says, accept been alleged for above the region, not aloof on their country’s associates of the EU but on specific action issues such as refugee alteration quotas.
It warns that that the growing burden for accepted referenda could hamstring key European controlling bodies.
Twenty-eight of the 45 parties anticipation that a Brexit vote in the UK would activate EU abrasion – with a majority assertive that would be a acceptable outcome.
Thirty-six parties adjoin the EU-Turkey accord on the refugee crisis, and 23 adjoin co-operation with Turkey on the war in Syria.
For 36 out of the 45 parties, the refugee crisis or the blackmail of agitation and abolitionist Islamism represented the top or top two priorities for the EU.
This acknowledgment was not the bottle of the appropriate wing, but spanned Die Linke in Germany; the French Communist Party, Podemos in Spain, and the Lithuanian Labour Party.
“Many of these anarchical parties accept angle on adopted action that are afterpiece to Admiral Putin than Admiral Obama,” said Mark Leonard, ECFR director.
“We can’t abolish them as binding parties – they represent a anarchy in European adopted policy.”
If you are ailing of the repetitive sloganeering of abundant of the EU acclamation campaign, it may not abruptness you to apprentice that a acceptable block of the amusing media action about Brexit capacity was generated by robots.
A cardboard by Philip Howard at Oxford University and Bence Kollanyi of the Corvinus University of Budapest estimates that beneath than 1 per cent of the Twitter accounts it sampled gave acceleration to 30 per cent of the letters generated – and abounding of the best alive accounts are acceptable to be automatic or semi-automated. “Bots” deployed by Abide campaigners generated mostly retweets, while Leave campaigners acclimated them to reinforce key hashtags.
“It is difficult to say how abundant accessible assessment is shaped by political address on this affair over amusing media or what the admission of bots is on accessible sentiment” they said. “Nevertheless, we can analyze the role that bot algorithms comedy in political advice about StrongerIn/Brexit issues.”
The academics analysed over 1.5m tweets from over 300,000 user accounts over the beforehand of a anniversary in aboriginal June. The cardboard is actuality (external site).
The FT’s Paris contributor Michael Stothard has begin pro-Remain campaigners in an abrupt abode – the Abode de la Bastille.
Stothard letters from a beef adjoin the French government’s plan to liberalise laws, breadth PhD apprentice Barbera Gomes (left) says she wants a “Europe that stays together”.
“Even if the UK does not consistently accede with France, we will be strongertogether,” she said, adding, “”The bread-and-butter arguments [for Brexit] don’t accomplish faculty either. Immigrants are acceptable for the economy. It’s crazy to try andkeep them out.”
The FT’s Mark Odell has ventured to a almost quiet polling base in Buckhurst Hill, a abounding burghal Essex driver boondocks aloof alfresco of London. Afore abuttals changes in 1974, the breadth was allotment of Sir Winston Churchill’s constituency.
None of the admiral would say how accumulation compared to the Accepted Acclamation in May aftermost year. One explained the “set up had been different” with added of them on assignment today, adding: “We’re not absolutely meant to comment.”
Buckhurst Hill lies on the arctic bound of Greater London at the end of the Underground network. Its best contempo affirmation to acclaim is that it is allotment of amount “Towie” country, with the boondocks consistently featured in the accepted absoluteness TV actualization “The Alone Way is Essex”.
It lies in the constituency of Epping Forest, a safe Conservative bench aback its conception in 1974. The incumbent, Elaenor Laing, is agent baton of the Abode of Commons and had kept quiet during the acclamation attack until this morning. In move that will appear as little abruptness the MP told the bounded cardboard – the Epping Forest Guardian – that she was abetment Leave.
Those who anticipate the EU acclamation is absolutely all about arch who should beforehand the Tory party, booty note…William Hill has cut the allowance on Theresa May acceptable the abutting baton from 6/1 to 3/1. Boris Johnson charcoal favourite at 11/4.
Also advancing up bound in the action is Ruth Davidson, the baton of the Tories in Scotland. Allowance for Ms Davidson, who afflicted in the penultimate television debate, are cut from 33/1 to 16/1.
David Cameron has already said he will footfall bottomward afore the abutting accepted acclamation in 2020.
It’s not aloof in admirable and stocks breadth the markets accept been alive today, Thomas Hale reports.
Some of the riskiest debt awash by UK banks has additionally risen, in a added assurance of the bullish affection in the bazaar afterwards the latest assessment polls.
So-called “coco bonds”, which booty losses aback banks run into trouble, fell abominably beforehand this year. But the instruments, which frequently move in bike with equities, accept had a acceptable anniversary in the UK.
A £1bn Barclays band has added 0.74 per cent today to ability 96.3 pence on the pound. It is up a whopping 5.4 per cent over the week, and is now trading at its accomplished akin aback backward January.
Cocos awash by Lloyds and RBS accept additionally risen this week.
The bonds anatomy allotment of post-crisis regulation, which aims to abstain aborigine bailouts of banks and instead alteration accident to investors, in acknowledgment for aerial yields. They are credible aback a coffer takes losses that abominably abate its basic position.
Analysts accept warned that if a vote for Brexit hit abode prices, for example, that could appulse coffer antithesis sheets.
Some of those polling base signs we’re seeing today accept been about aback afore we were born, according to this disarmingly absorbing blog:
Everything you wanted to know about the font used on Polling Station signs https://t.co/yKFFQNFtMv
— Ian Wishart (@IanWishart) June 23, 2016
UK stocks rebounded in the aftermost hour of London trading, with the FTSE 100 closing 1.2 per cent college at 6,338.1.
The baddest criterion had hit a two-month aerial in aboriginal trade, afresh cut its day’s accretion to aloof 0.3 per cent by midafternoon. Admirable was additionally on a rollercoaster, ascent 0.8 per cent adjoin the dollar to $1.4818 by the London disinterestedness bazaar abutting accepting collapsed to as low as $1.4699 an hour or so earlier.
Economic arguments about the dangers of Brexit may accept bootless to accomplish an appulse on some voters but economics still affairs aback bodies go to the polls. Two arch labour bazaar analysts accept had a attending at the areas that voted for UKIP in the 2015 accepted election, Sarah Neville letters today. They begin a statistically cogent articulation with those areas breadth accomplishment accept stagnated aback 1997.
Pointing out that, in some areas, an absolute address had absent out on allowance growth, Prof Machin said warnings of the bread-and-butter peril of Brexit “may assume beneath acceptable to bodies who accept not credible any of the above-mentioned gains” alike admitting those areas accept the best to lose from Britain abrogation the EU.
The FT’s arch political contributor Jim Pickard letters that Vote Leave has been accused of alienated approach afterwards it beatific an email admonishing supporters about the crisis that voters in Scotland and London could vote for In – admitting the “heartlands” aptitude appear Out.
The email highlights the way that altered regions are accepted to vote in clearly altered patterns. But the In affected criticised the use of the chat “heartlands” to call regions acceptable to vote Out, such as the East Midlands and North-East.
Chuka Umunna, a Labour MP, said: “Londoners and Scots accept as abundant appropriate to exercise their autonomous best as anyone else. Implying that our votes are somehow beneath accepted than those casting in added genitalia of Britain is absolutely disgraceful.”
London, Scotland, Arctic Ireland and – apparently – Wales are all accepted to vote In. So too are the bigger English cities.
The English shires and canton towns are accepted to bear for the Out campaign.
The aftereffect is additionally accepted to breach Britain on demographic breadth with beforehand non-graduates added acceptable to vote Out and vice-versa.
Lambeth is expecting, letters The FT’s Property Contributor Judith Evans.
Natasha Heffinck, 33, from Belgium, is due to accord address in a week’s time and could not vote in the referendum, but still affronted out in the rain to duke out “I’m in” stickers in Loughborough Junction, south London.
“There are so abounding affidavit to break in, I couldn’t let the vote canyon me by. I am Belgian so this vote has a huge address for me and for so abounding others,” she says.
“I would accept adopted if the the campaigns had ashore to facts — that would accept been a added honourable way of proceeding.”
Londoners action to vote afterwards assignment should booty their brollies, if the actualization from the FT economics allowance is annihilation to go by…
— Sarah O'Connor (@sarahoconnor_) June 23, 2016
Isabel Schnabel, assistant of cyberbanking economics at the University of Bonn, adds her articulation to the altercation that Britain’s avenue would accident the EU.
One such amount would be the political about-face aural the EU appear added protectionist, added interventionist and beneath market-friendly forces. This is acceptable to accomplish it alike harder to apparatus abominably bare structural reforms. It would rather strengthen those in favour of accretion accessible subsidisation, introducing protectionist measures careful calm companies from competition, and amid anon in the markets’ price-setting mechanisms. This could corruption not alone the beforehand abeyant of the actual EU countries. It would additionally affect Britain. In attempting to advance admission to the accepted European market, the UK may alike be affected into new regulations, offsetting the new freedoms enjoyed alfresco the union.
A additional blackmail is that Brexit would set in motion a action of added disintegration. There could be a stronger nationalisation, inducing added countries to accede abrogation the EU as well, abnormally in the attendance of able autonomous political movements. A complete alienation of the abutment would not be an absurd outcome. Conversely, there could additionally be stronger regionalisation, so that secessionist movements aural countries in the EU would accretion momentum.
If you’re apprehensive aback you’ll apprehend the acclamation after-effects from your area, you can attending it up in this accessible account from the Columnist Association. Some of these times are based on councils’ own forecasts; some are based on how connected it has taken them to calculation their votes in antecedent elections. They are all aloof estimates, of course, but actuality are the accepted aboriginal birds…
…and the ones bringing up the rear…
It’s action to be a big 24 hours for all-around markets, no amount what the result. If you appetite to chase the gyrations, the FT’s Elaine Moore and Philip Stafford accept this accessible adviser on which markets to watch when.
How to apprehend the aboriginal results? JP Morgan offers a asperous adviser to expectations in anniversary ward.
That’s from a Brexit bluff area put calm beforehand this anniversary by JP Morgan economist Allan Monks. His projections beforehand we may accept a handle on the aftereffect by about 3.30am.
Here, according to JP Morgan, are the key marginals:
It’s still alive at the Elms Club polling base in Ramsgate, South Thanet, letters FT man-on-the-ground Rick Mertens. Application adviser Anthony Childs predicts an all-embracing abide vote, but feels that best locals will vote out:
“A lot of bodies will be pissed off tomorrow, but I assumption that will be the case all over the country.”
Meanwhile, aback in the Burghal of London, the sleeping accoutrements are actuality formed out at Barclays in alertness for the all-nighter, according to the FT’s Harriet Agnew. They’re not the alone ones affairs out all the stops. Clifford Adventitious has a “24/7 Brexit accelerated acknowledgment unit”, CME Accumulation has added agents to its “Global Command Centre” and Citigroup has a appropriate playlist.
Citigroup has acquaint an “EU Acclamation Playlist” on its centralized aperture to get agents in the mood. The agency appearance “Should I Break or Should I Go?” (The Clash), “Don’t You Appetite Me Baby?” (The Animal League) and “Don’t Attending Aback in Anger” (Oasis).
While the FTSE 100 may hog the limelight, it’s been the FTSE 250 that’s been outperforming in contempo sessions. Thursday’s billow agitated the mid-cap base into absolute breadth for the year to date.
The benchmark’s 250 capacity acquire 50 per cent of their acquirement from the UK, compared with about 20 per cent for the FTSE 100, according to contempo assay from Credit Suisse.
Not what Londoners who may be branch home to vote afterwards assignment charge to hear. The torrential rains that accept hit the basic in the aftermost few hours has brought disruption to abounding of the Tube lines. Do assay your routes home https://tfl.gov.uk…overground/status/
There’s overground alternation anarchy too in London and the South East, letters the FT’s Conor Sullivan, which has affected some polling stations to close.
The FT’s Caroline Binham letters that Britain’s cyberbanking regulators will be befitting a absolute abutting eye on London’s banks and brokers over the abutting few days.
The Cyberbanking Conduct Ascendancy has put cyberbanking institutions on apprehension about “potential conduct risks” — including giving some barter best analysis as orders assemblage up in what is accepted to be awful airy markets. In acknowledgment to the alert, banks accept imposed added restrictions and accident banned for traders in the asset classes they accomplish in, and warned agents that their conversations will be carefully monitored. “The risks about alleviative barter adequately and bazaar corruption are the aforementioned that firms face every day, but any ample swings in the bazaar would aloof aggrandize those risks,” said Guy Wilkes, a above FCA administration official now at the law abutting Mayer Brown.
Sorry for the abrupt abeyance in blogging: the night team, which is me, Judith Evans and Jim Pickard all got bent out by the carriage commotion acquired by the calamity in London. One of our colleauges, Josh Noble, letters the badge were on duke at London Bridge alternation base to calm bottomward affronted commuters adverse astringent delays branch aback to the south coast. I saw a lot of commuters on my way in continuing about attractive at their acute phones about added above hubs, including Coffer base and Cannon Street
From our online bolt editor, Emiko Terazono:
As a clearer annual of the UK acclamation after-effects emerges, article traders will be attractive for opportunities in New York, London and Shanghai through the night.
Gold, acclimatized physically, is traded 24 hours about the world, while Comex gold futures traded on the CME in New York.
In Shanghai, gold can be traded on the Shanghai Futures Barter in three sessions – 2am to 4.30 am, 6.30pm to 8am and 2pm to 7.30pm, all London time.
For oil,the all-embracing criterion Brent is traded through ICE amidst 1:00am to 11.00pm London time while Nymex West Texas International, the US marker, is traded on the CME amidst 11pm and 10pm UK time.
Here’s an absorbing booty in the New York Times about the role of Boris Johnson – years ago – in auspicious the accessible actualization of the EU as a bloated, antic organisation.
Mr. Johnson, accursed from The Times in 1988 for architecture a quotation, fabricated his name in Brussels not with honest advertisement but with acute euroskepticism, endlessly attacking, biting and abusive the European Union.
Here is the FT’s photo arcade to admonish bodies of some of the key moments in the acclamation campaign.
The bookmaker Ladbrokes says it has had its busiest anytime day of political betting, with punters agreement up to £30,000 anniversary on Abide or Leave.
Remain allowance were as abbreviate as 1/10 in the morning, but diffuse to 1/6 during the day, while allowance on Leave were cut to 4/1 — or a 19 per cent adventitious of the UK voting for Brexit — from 6/1 beforehand in the day.
As in the countdown to today, bets for Leave were added abundant but those for Abide tended to be larger.
Alex Donohue, agent for Ladbrokes, said: “The absorption in accepting a bet on the acclamation from the accessible is absolutely unprecedented… we’re anchored to backpack on trading connected into the baby hours of Friday morning.”
Brexit the horse, sadly, fared beneath well. The two-year-old filly active in the 6.10 at Newbury came in sixth.
— Racing Post (@RacingPost) June 23, 2016
The FT’s Mure Dickie letters that Mary Pitcaithly, Scotland’s arch counting officer, is forecasting that Scottish accumulation could end up actuality 70 to 80 per cent or possibly alike higher, based on voting action during the day and postal vote tallies.
Turnout in Scotland’s 2014 acclamation on ability from the UK was 85 per cent.
It has been a absolutely abetment polling day in abundant of the south of England:© Reuters
And admirable and brilliant in added genitalia of the country, including Carmarthenshire in Wales, breadth this pub was acclimated as a polling base for the day:
Politicians acquisition themselves in abysmal water, not for the aboriginal time:
Not the canals of Venice but Abingdon Green where a fair chunk of the world's Referendum coverage is generated pic.twitter.com/xiwvvpiAi6
— Simon Mares (@SimonMaresITV) June 23, 2016
Our colleagues, Sarah Gordon and Lilah Raptopoulos accept pulled calm replies from FT readers, who happened to be top acknowledged experts, on some of the trickier questions that would aftereffect from a Brexit
Spare a anticipation for those ashore at London’s Waterloo station, the capital’s busiest carriage hub — abnormally those who accept yet to vote. Hundreds of commuters are trapped there in the weather-related carriage chaos, with some tweeting they are anxious about missing the 10pm voting deadline.
— ITV News (@itvnews) June 23, 2016
Right folks, we are action to abutting this blog and alpha a new one to awning the aftermost hour or so of voting and afresh affluence into the advantage of the calculation and after-effects as they appear in overnight. You do not charge to go anywhere but amuse do REFRESH your browser window to about-face over to the new blog.
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